Abstract: This session is for those of you who might have heard about “forecasting” but haven’t done it at all and want to learn the basics and get your hands dirty and give it a go. You will learn how to use historical data (or estimates if no data exists yet) to forecast and plan deliverables. You will practice forecasting in groups, and discuss how and why these techniques might compare to what you currently do.
Often, before the starting gun has even gone off there are a bunch of people asking: “So, how much do you think this is going to cost? And, when do you think it will be done?” Some will say this is unknowable; that any response is a guess at best, and a lie at worst. But when you’re trying to make investment decisions, or if you have other dependencies to plan for, these are reasonable questions that we need to be able to handle. But unless your teams have a crystal ball, they’re poorly equipped to answer this question, (no matter how much you whip them). How do we answer these questions without making promises we can’t keep?
Learning Outcomes: - Understand why forecasting is so important
- Discuss the top 5 reasons forecasts often fail and what to do about it
- Learn what data you need to start collecting to get started with forecasting
- Have a go with a very simple forecasting method
- Show faster ways to estimate just enough when no historical data exists (until it does)
- Practice different ways to communicate your forecast and uncertainty to stakeholders
