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Thursday, August 9 • 10:45 - 12:00
Agile Forecasting With The Wisdom of Crowds (Ron Quartel, Quinn Gil) POPULAR

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Abstract:
Could the wisdom of crowds be used as a valid mechanism for forecasting work? Imagine being able to accurately forecast an entire release in a matter of minutes! Come and be part of a real-time experiment we will conduct in this session on agile estimation using the wisdom of crowds. Previous runs of this experiment have turned up some exciting results that will certainly get you thinking. We have people say things like, "that's not possible" when they see the results. Prepare to be astonished! This will be an exciting session where we put theory to the test real time! At the same time give you practical tools should you want to begin using the wisdom of crowds for forecasting in your own workplace.
Additionally, we will compare and contrast wisdom of crowds to common estimation practices used today. We will talk about the psychology, assumptions, and flaws in: Comparative estimation, Blink Estimation, Planning Poker, and Fibonacci sequence. Once you understand these assumptions, you can make better use of these approaches. It’s about time we tried something different for Agile estimation and forecasting. Come and be part of what might just be a major revolution.

Learning Outcomes:
  • Understanding of The Wisdom of Crowds
  • How to implement The Wisdom of Crowds for forecasting work
  • Limitations of The Wisdom of Crowds and how big is a crowd?
  • Forecasting vs. Estimation
  • The psychology of groupthink and how to mitigate against conformity and framing
  • History, background, and flaws in current agile estimation methods
  • A repeatable experiment to run at your own organization for those that are just curious to experiment
  • Come away with a new awareness of the need for more experimentation against many common practices and to hold an open and experimental mindset instead

Attachments:

Speakers
avatar for Quinn Gil

Quinn Gil

Software Crafter
Quinn got hooked on programming in a computer introduction course. For over 20 years, he's never gone more than a couple months without programming something; even while getting a degree in physics. Quinn has always been looking for ways to improve the code he writes, and the code... Read More →
avatar for Ron Quartel

Ron Quartel

Consultant, Slalom
Ron loves software and creating harmony in the workplace. His Agile and Extreme Programming experience started in 2002 and over the years has built into strong technical skills and a deep understanding of Agile methods. In 2014 Ron had an epiphany moment at an Open Space conference... Read More →


Thursday August 9, 2018 10:45 - 12:00
Balboa/Mission Hills